May 2021
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The ongoing global economic reopening process continued in April amid rising vaccination rates, giving a further boost to Investor sentiment as suggested by numerous indicators demonstrating incredibly strong growth. The major equity indices climbed to all-time highs, commodities saw a big rally, and even safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries recovered after the volatile declines seen during the first quarter. We expect even higher volatility during the summer, but a combination of loose fiscal and monetary policy should lead to a rebound in household and corporate spending in 2H21, while robust earnings growth should support equities over the course of 2021. The US Federal Reserve communicated expectations for high real GDP growth, falling unemployment, and moderate inflation during its March and April 2021 meetings. Although interest rates are expected to remain on hold for the next three years, a tapering tantrum could be triggered by much stronger than expected inflation indicators coming in over the next few months. We affirm our "risk on" stance to equities over the course of 2021. The correction in equity markets, which started in early May proved that our defensive positioning in the 1Q21 was the right move. It is also the primary reason why the Technology of the Future Fund, with a +3.61% . return in April, underperformed the major indexes and the benchmark MSCI World Index (USD), which had a return of +4.52% .
The ongoing global economic reopening process continued in April amid rising vaccination rates, giving a further boost to Investor sentiment as suggested by numerous indicators demonstrating incredibly strong growth. The major equity indices climbed to all-time highs, commodities saw a big rally, and even safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries recovered after the volatile declines seen during the first quarter. We expect even higher volatility during the summer, but a combination of loose fiscal and monetary policy should lead to a rebound in household and corporate spending in 2H21, while robust earnings growth should support equities over the course of 2021. The US Federal Reserve communicated expectations for high real GDP growth, falling unemployment, and moderate inflation during its March and April 2021 meetings. Although interest rates are expected to remain on hold for the next three years, a tapering tantrum could be triggered by much stronger than expected inflation indicators coming in over the next few months. We affirm our "risk on" stance to equities over the course of 2021. The correction in equity markets, which started in early May proved that our defensive positioning in the 1Q21 was the right move. It is also the primary reason why the Technology of the Future Fund, with a +3.61% . return in April, underperformed the major indexes and the benchmark MSCI World Index (USD), which had a return of +4.52% .